The mystery aircraft's wing shape being so reminiscent of Concorde, along with what could be upturned 'rolled' wingtips, does seem to point to a highly efficient design that would have significant supercruise (flying beyond the speed of sound without the use of afterburner), if not outright very-high-speed capabilities. Development work in the high-speed flight realm has exploded in recent years, especially when it comes to hypersonic aircraft and missiles. Somewhat famously, Lockheed Martin's then CEO Marylin Hewson noted that the company could have an F-22-sized flying demonstrator for its hypersonic combined cycle engine ready for around $1B and in just a few years' time. That was back in 2016. What followed was a seemingly bizarre media push regarding the notional SR-72 hypersonic spy and attack drone. That initiative seems to have gone largely dark since then, but it is possible the aircraft we are seeing is that demonstrator. At least the size and timeline seem to fit. 

On top of that, the Air Force is currently pursuing a hypersonic flight test program known as Mayhem. Details about this project are limited, but we do know it is tied into work relating to advanced high-speed jet engines and is seeking to build demonstrators configured to perform strike and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. This is all very much in line with how Lockheed Martin had described its vision for the SR-72. 

Separately, China has pushed ahead with its own high-speed unmanned concepts, including the air-launched, rocket-powered WZ-8. That aircraft is also a delta-shaped design, although with large and very abrupt winglets. The WZ-8 is much smaller and has a more pure delta design than whatever we are seeing in the satellite image of Area 51.

Still, it isn't clear if the wing design seen in the satellite image would support such incredible speed, although there has been chatter for years about variable geometry wings for very high-speed aircraft, basically where the small wing extensions fold partially forward into the fuselage after takeoff and climb, greatly decreasing the span and basically leaving a highly-swept wedge-like diamond planform for very high-speed cruise. This would provide the best of both worlds and allow the aircraft to recover at speeds that would be feasible on large standard runways. 

However, these concepts have been batted around for years and while one can could see how it could work with this basic design, if the wingtips are upturned, it would make such a configuration seem like a remote possibility. Regardless, even a static-wing aircraft that can supercruise very efficiently at supersonic speeds would be a major capability advantage. 

Something related to efforts in developing and testing still mysteriously missing advanced unmanned combat air vehicles is also a possibility. Even at the highest levels, bringing these kinds of capabilities into an operational state is finally becoming a priority. Considering the increasing focus on advanced drone swarms, teaming, and infusion of AI into the air combat arena, this is likely a major focus of testing ongoing at the expanding base.

So, while the aircraft's planform matches most closely with NGAD's centerpiece platform, and we know for a fact that type is flying, we have no real idea if it is related to that program. We can't even say for certain what this aircraft's objectives are beyond what we can gather generally from its planform and our analysis is still in a very preliminary state. 

All that being said, we must underscore that spotting a totally new and exotic aircraft design in the open at Area 51 is largely unprecedented, and for very good reason. It is widely known that those who run the facility are masters at concealing what they need to conceal. The place literally wrote the book on clandestine flight test operations going back to the dawn of the U-2 spy plane. They know when every imaging satellite is passing over and refine their operations, much of which occurs under the cover of darkness, accordingly. 

Area 51 garners massive interest from the public as well as foreign countries, both allied and not, all of which have access to imaging satellite capabilities. In other words, they know they are being watched every single day overhead. While vague glimpses of mysterious objects in the shadows may have occurred, it's very unlike them to leave a highly-sensitive test article just sitting on a vacant apron for any imaging satellite or even onlooker from afar to gawk at. This prompts a very intriguing question—why was this airframe left out in the open at all? 

One could argue that the intention was for this aircraft to be seen. With all the strategic signaling going on these days, that would not be out of the realm of possibility. Certainly, similar sightings have occurred at foreign developmental airfields, but they are not the same as Area 51. In fact, considering where this happened and the facility's long record of perfection when it comes to hiding everything it needs to from satellites overhead, this would seem far more probable than possible.

One other idea that came to mind is that this could be one of the many long-retired prototype aircraft that are thought to be stored at Area 51 after their testing career has come to a close. They are the lucky ones, others are said to be buried all around the highly restricted grounds—too costly to declassify and no room for them to be stored. Due to the odd placement of the non-covered shelter, the only thing we can think of is maybe one of these planes is being used to test a new towable shelter system, but that really doesn't add up either. Those aircraft would still be undisclosed and they can just use one of the F-16s based there or another mundane aircraft to do that. 

As for what's in the big hangar nearby the mystery aircraft, we still have no idea. Its tall and elongated dimensions, as well as its secluded locale, have caused much speculation as to what it was built to hold, but its location may point to something of extreme sensitivity, both in terms of secrecy and potentially physical volatility.

Everything from some sort of new high-speed aircraft that may run on especially volatile fuel to a parasite two-stage-to-orbit mothership concept has been floated. What is clear is that the structure is very opposite of the wide and low-slung hangars commonly associated with subsonic low-observable aircraft, like stealth bombers and high-flying surveillance aircraft. Maybe it houses a mothership for which the aircraft we are seeing is lifted onto and is lofted into the air, similar to the WZ-8 concept. Once again, that would at least explain the hangar's high and elongated dimensions. We just don't know.

Some have also posited the hangar is a giant scoot-and-hide shelter designed to get test aircraft out of the view of satellites overhead prior to taking off and after landing. Building such a large and fully enclosed structure for that purpose seems odd, especially considering its size. A large vehicle that would make full use of it would have to live inside a hangar nearby at the main ramp anyway. Still, it's a possibility.

Finally, it's possible that what goes on inside is something of its own unique testing operation — some sort of static signature testing facility or another advanced diagnostic capability in a highly controlled and secure environment. Facilities of a similar nature exist at other far less reclusive test bases. But this too seems somewhat unlikely considering Area 51's focus on actual flight testing. Historically, that kind of work is done elsewhere. This reality also reduces the possibility that the aircraft we are seeing in the satellite image is some sort of a non-flying mockup.

In fact, the lack of any sort of significant activity or further development around the big southern hangar has also led to some speculation that whatever it was built for either failed or never even made it into testing at all. Such an assertion is hard to quantify considering much of the testing occurs at night at the base and it is quite an elaborate facility to build just to abandon, although that is certainly possible. Even so, that's not to say something hasn't taken its place in the better part of a decade since its completion.

So, while we may have a truly unprecedented satellite image to examine, that's about all we have at this point. The rest is just up to speculation. But still, this image serves as the rarest of visual reminders that amazing aviation history continues to be made out at America's most secretive air base. 

Quelle: The Trive