3.01.2021
If 2020 was any indication, this year's Florida launch cadence will likely follow a similar spate of missions – crewed and uncrewed – flying from Space Coast pads.
Last year's record-setting pace of 30 successful orbital launches, which bested 1966's 29, will flow into January as teams prepare to kick off 2021 with at least three missions. Beyond that, the cadence is expected to maintain its speed as SpaceX continues building its Starlink internet constellation and United Launch Alliance eyes 10 launches for the year.
More: Florida just had its busiest orbital rocket launch year in decades
Barring additional setbacks, Florida could also host three brand new rockets this year, though the schedules remain in flux. Here's what to expect.
SpaceX
With one pad at Kennedy Space Center and a second at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, SpaceX is expected to keep flying batches of 60 Starlink satellites as quickly as teams can turn rockets around.
Still in its infancy and short of the goal of thousands of satellites in orbit, Starlink is expected to fly at least one mission per month and possibly more. The deployment rate will be increasingly important as SpaceX eyes expanding its public beta beyond higher latitudes like Washington state and parts of Canada, where users are already connected to the $99-a-month network (after $499 for the dish and other equipment).
The first Starlink launch of the year – 17th overall for the constellation – is slated for the first half of January, though an exact date has not yet been released.
Before that, a Falcon 9 rocket is on the Space Force's schedule for liftoff of a Turkish communications satellite between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. on Jan. 4. Labeled Turksat-5A, the mission will take flight from the Cape's Launch Complex 40.
The Dragon capsule, meanwhile, will also be busy this year ferrying astronauts and supplies to and from the International Space Station.
"This mission represents the initiation of the Dragon in orbit continuously," SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell told reporters after the Nov. 15 launch of four astronauts on Crew-1. "In the next 15 months, we should be flying roughly seven Dragon missions."
At least three uncrewed, robotic resupply flights are targeting May, September, and November. They mark the company's 22nd, 23rd, and 24th resupply flights, respectively.
On the crewed front, SpaceX's Crew-2 mission with NASA astronauts Shane Kimbrough and Megan McArthur, Japanese astronaut Akihiko Hoshide, and European astronaut Thomas Pesquet is targeting no earlier than March 30. Only pad 39A at KSC can host their Crew Dragon.
NASA's Raja Chari and Tom Marshburn, along with European astronaut Matthias Maurer, will fly the following Crew-3 mission no earlier than September.
Beyond these, expect SpaceX to fly several more payloads for commercial customers ranging from rideshare missions with dozens of smaller spacecraft to large, heavy communications satellites.
ULA
ULA is targeting 10 flights this year, most of which will use variations of the Atlas V rocket.
CEO Tory Bruno told reporters in December his company will fly four missions for the Space Force and National Reconnaissance Office; three NASA science missions including an asteroid-hunting spacecraft named Lucy; two flights for Boeing's Starliner capsule, which will first re-fly a previously failed test; and, if schedules hold, the debut of the highly anticipated Vulcan Centaur rocket with a lunar spacecraft.
"Our customer Astrobotic believes they'll be ready to go to space in the fourth quarter," Bruno said. "This is their first spacecraft and they need to get it just right."
The Peregrine lunar lander, packed with 14 scientific payloads, was selected by NASA as part of the preparations for putting Artemis astronauts on the moon by 2024.
"Our mission, of course, as the launch provider is to be ready before them so that they are not waiting on us," he said.
Designed as the successor to the current fleet, Vulcan will eventually be the sole rocket flying under ULA's umbrella. Bruno said he expects the first pair of flight-ready BE-4 main engines, built by Blue Origin, to arrive at the Cape sometime this summer. The rocket is also capable of flying with up to six solid rocket motors from Northrop Grumman.
The launch of Peregrine will mark the first of two flights necessary for Vulcan to earn certification from the Space Force for national security missions.
NASA
Though years behind schedule, NASA says it's still targeting by the end of 2021 for the first flight of its massive Space Launch System rocket, the linchpin in the Artemis program's lunar ambitions.
If testing and hardware integration schedules hold, Artemis I will launch from KSC's pad 39B with an uncrewed Orion capsule. After liftoff, the spacecraft will autonomously fly around the moon, then return to Earth for a splashdown. If successful, the test will pave the way for astronauts to conduct an identical mission on Artemis II, followed by a full lunar touchdown of Artemis III in 2024.
Even if SLS is unable to take flight by the end of 2021, KSC is still expected to see a flurry of activity as more and more components arrive for integration in the historic Vehicle Assembly Building.
Blue Origin
Blue Origin, meanwhile, is still targeting late this year for the debut of its heavy-lift New Glenn rocket built just a few miles away from its pad at Launch Complex 36.
Also powered by BE-4 engines, the more than 300-foot rocket is designed to be the workhorse for founder Jeff Bezos' vision of building a "road to space." NASA recently announced New Glenn can compete for Launch Services Program contracts moving forward, which focus on scientific and exploratory missions for the agency.
For a constantly updated manifest, visit floridatoday.com/launchschedule.
Contact Emre Kelly at aekelly@floridatoday.com or 321-242-3715. Follow him on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram at @EmreKelly. Support space journalism by subscribing at floridatoday.com/specialoffer/.
